Following last week’s win by Republican gubernatorial candidates in seats that were held by Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia, many Republicans have made the logical jump to predict the congressional elections of next year will be something like 1994….That is a massive Republican takeover is predicted.
Not taking into account any earth shattering events that have yet to happen, I think this is highly unlikely for several reasons the biggest one being the political reality….In 1994, the Democrats had been in power in the House of Representatives for 72 out of 76 years….There had been numerous scandals such as the house banking scandal and the bounced check scandal that spoke of a group of people who had been in power for far too long.
In the senate, there were a number of retirements on the Democratic side in 1994….In 2010 there will be seven Republican retirements.
In addition, despite losing his re-election race, George Bush the senior didn’t leave the lingering negative aftertaste of his son’s eight year disastrous term….By 1994, people were holding Bill Clinton and the congress responsible for the condition of the country.
Polls show that today’s voters haven’t forgotten the eight years before Obama wherein George Bush wrecked the economy and destroyed America’s credibility….He is still an albatross around the necks of the Republican Party.
The role of reformer/ savior is going to be a hard sell for the Republicans whose negativity is as low or even lower on a number of important issues….They have quite a few of their own scandals to deal with and no master planner like Newt Gingrich in 1994 to help them….Sarah Palin? Don’t make me laugh!
In addition, the Republican Party seems bent on establishing a purity test wherein Republican candidates even incumbents who are not deemed conservative enough may face primary challenges from right wing teabag loony types….The Democrats actually picked up a seat in New York on Tuesday because a right wing candidate running third party upended the moderate Republican who had won the primary and then lost to a moderate Democrat in the general election….I think we will see a lot more of this next year and it will only help the Democrats as you will either have Republican candidates who are too conservative for the districts they are running in or weakened Republican nominees who spent all their cash and resources in bloody primary battles.
The New Jersey and Virginia races hinged more on local politics and featured exceptionally weak Democratic candidates….They are hardly bellwethers for the public mood.
To the contrary of what pundits are saying now, I think the Democrats could even pick up seats next year especially in the Senate….There are a lot of vulnerable Republican office holders.
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